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Accurate Calculation of Longer-term Incidences From Short-term Incidence Values—Reply
Oliver D. Schein, MD, MPH;
Joanne Katz, ScD
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In reply
Mr Knox Cartwright has misunderstood our recent letter1 where our principal point was that one could not estimate a 30-year risk by simply multiplying an estimated annual risk by 30. As pointed out in that correspondence letter, we described a risk that was cumulative on a relative rather than absolute scale, which is self-evident by virtue of the rate being a percentage. In fact, we made the point that the risks of ulcerative keratitis almost certainly decline in both absolute and relative terms with years of contact lens wear. This is not because of statistical reasoning but because unsuccessful lens wearers at higher risk drop out of lens wear and the more successful, lower-risk "survivors" persist.
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Correspondence: Dr Schein, Wilmer 120, Johns Hopkins Hospital, 800 N Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21287-9012 (oschein@jhmi.edu).
Financial Disclosure: None reported.
1. Schein OD, Katz J. Comparing contact lens and refractive surgery risks. Arch Ophthalmol. 2007;125(6):853-854.
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