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The Eye Diseases Prevalence Research Group^*

Arch Ophthalmol. 2004;122:487-494.

Objectives  To determine the prevalence of cataract and pseudophakia/aphakia in the United States and to project the expected change in these prevalence figures by 2020.

Methods  Summary prevalence estimates of cataract and of pseudophakia/aphakia were prepared separately for black, white, and Hispanic persons (for whom only cataract surgery data were available) in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years for women and men. The estimates were based on a standardized definition of various types of cataract: cortical, greater than 25% of the lens involved; posterior subcapsular, present according to the grading system used in each study; and nuclear, greater than or equal to the penultimate grade in the system used. Data were collected from major population-based studies in the United States, and, where appropriate, Australia, Barbados, and Western Europe. The age-, gender-, and race/ethnicity-specific rates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and projected population figures for 2020, to obtain overall estimates.

Results  An estimated 20.5 million (17.2%) Americans older than 40 years have cataract in either eye, and 6.1 million (5.1%) have pseudophakia/aphakia. Women have a significantly (odds ratio = 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.50) higher age-adjusted prevalence of cataract than men in the United States. The total number of persons who have cataract is estimated to rise to 30.1 million by 2020; and for those who are expected to have pseudophakia/aphakia, to 9.5 million.

Conclusion  The number of Americans affected by cataract and undergoing cataract surgery will dramatically increase over the next 20 years as the US population ages.

^*The Writing Group members for the Eye Diseases Prevalence Research Group who had complete access to the raw data needed for this report and who bear authorship responsibility for this report are Nathan Congdon, MD, MPH (chairperson); Johannes R. Vingerling, MD, PhD; Barbara E. K. Klein, MD, MPH; Sheila West, PhD; David S. Friedman, MD, MPH; John Kempen MD, PhD; Benita O'Colmain, MPH; Suh-Yuh Wu, MA; Hugh R. Taylor, MD; and Jie Jin Wang, Mmed, MApplStat, PhD. The Writing Group for this article has no relevant financial interest in this article.

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