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Baseline Factors That Predict the Onset of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma

Mae O. Gordon, PhD; Julia A. Beiser, MS; James D. Brandt, MD; Dale K. Heuer, MD; Eve J. Higginbotham, MD; Chris A. Johnson, PhD; John L. Keltner, MD; J. Philip Miller, AB; Richard K. Parrish II, MD; M. Roy Wilson, MD; Michael A. Kass, MD; for the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study Group

Arch Ophthalmol. 2002;120:714-720.

Background  The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) has shown that topical ocular hypotensive medication is effective in delaying or preventing the onset of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in individuals with elevated intraocular pressure (ocular hypertension) and no evidence of glaucomatous damage.

Objective  To describe baseline demographic and clinical factors that predict which participants in the OHTS developed POAG.

Methods  Baseline demographic and clinical data were collected prior to randomization except for corneal thickness measurements, which were performed during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify factors that predicted which participants in the OHTS developed POAG.

Results  In univariate analyses, baseline factors that predicted the development of POAG included older age, race (African American), sex (male), larger vertical cup-disc ratio, larger horizontal cup-disc ratio, higher intraocular pressure, greater Humphrey visual field pattern standard deviation, heart disease, and thinner central corneal measurement. In multivariate analyses, baseline factors that predicted the development of POAG included older age, larger vertical or horizontal cup-disc ratio, higher intraocular pressure, greater pattern standard deviation, and thinner central corneal measurement.

Conclusions  Baseline age, vertical and horizontal cup-disc ratio, pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure were good predictors for the onset of POAG in the OHTS. Central corneal thickness was found to be a powerful predictor for the development of POAG.

From the Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences (Drs Gordon and Kass and Ms Beiser) and Division of Biostatistics (Mr Miller), Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Mo; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, Davis (Drs Brandt and Keltner); Department of Ophthalmology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee (Dr Heuer); Maryland Center for Eye Care Associates and the Department of Ophthalmology, University of Maryland, Baltimore (Dr Higginbotham); Devers Eye Institute, Portland, Ore (Dr Johnson); Bascom Palmer Eye Institute, University of Miami School of Medicine, Miami, Fla (Dr Parrish); and Creighton University School of Medicine, Omaha, Neb (Dr Wilson).

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